In this article, I will argue that there are many lines of evidence the combination of which justifies us thinking that significant voter fraud occurred in the 2020 US election which increased the chances of Joe Biden winning in key swing states.
Before turning specifically to the 2020 election, it is important to note that election fraud is not unheard of in the United States. This is worth establishing because if we think election fraud almost never happens then we will have a higher bar of evidence for the justification of any particular claim of fraud.
In recent decades, there have been over 1,200 known instances of voter fraud due to which 20 US elections had to be overturned to declare a new winner (Heritage, 2020). Of these, 15 were overturned due to fraud involving mail based ballots (Lucas, 2020). This isn’t surprising since mail in ballots have long been noted to be particularly vulnerable to fraud. This is why most European nations have either banned absentee voting or require an ID for someone to obtain such a ballot (Lott, 2020).
This fact has been attested to by American media on both the right and left. For instance, in 2012 the New York Times wrote the following: “While fraud in voting by mail is far less common than innocent errors, it is vastly more prevalent than the in-person voting fraud that has attracted far more attention, election administrators say. In Florida, absentee-ballot scandals seem to arrive like clockwork around election time.” – Liptak (2012)
The piece even went as far as to cast doubt on the 2000 US presidential election results on the basis of such concerns:
“Voting by mail is now common enough and problematic enough that election experts say there have been multiple elections in which no one can say with confidence which candidate was the deserved winner. The list includes the 2000 presidential election, in which problems with absentee ballots in Florida were a little-noticed footnote to other issues…
Voting by mail also played a crucial role in the 2000 presidential election in Florida, when the margin between George W. Bush and Al Gore was razor thin and hundreds of absentee ballots were counted in apparent violation of state law. The flawed ballots, from Americans living abroad, included some without postmarks, some postmarked after the election, some without witness signatures, some mailed from within the United States and some sent by people who voted twice. All would have been disqualified had the state’s election laws been strictly enforced.” – Liptak (2012)
So being worried about mail-in ballot fraud, and even suggesting it could alter the results of a US presidential election, is not outside the norm.
Before, I said that there are roughly 1,200 known cases of recent American voter fraud. Of course, this doesn’t tell us how common voter fraud really is because it could be that the vast majority of instances are never detected. County level analysis shows that there are at least 1.8 million excess registered voters relative to the eligible population size and this at least opens the door for the possibility of voter fraud on a truly massive scale (Judicial Watch, 2020).
More importantly, non-citizens in America report voting at rates that imply at least nearly a million cases of voter fraud per year. This suggests that only a tiny proportion of the voter fraud that takes place is normally caught and that fraud at a scale that can change elections is actually the norm. Of course, these figures leave out voter fraud not involving immigrants, and so is surely a significant under estimation of the total amount of fraud that takes place.
Citation – N – Self Reported Voting – Implied Illegal Votes
- Richman et al. (2016) – 85 – 11.5% – 5,152,000
- Richman et al. (2016) – 23 – 8.7% – 3,897,600
- Richman et al. (2014) – 328 – 11.3% – 5,062,400
- Richman et al. (2014) – 364 – 3.5% – 1,568,000
- Epigone (2019) – 814 – 2.2% – 985,600
The typical response to such figures is to say that survey respondents could be lying or could have read the question incorrectly. That they are not lying is attested to by the fact that researchers have verified the voting of about 2% of the non-citizens in these surveys (Richman et al., 2016; Richman et al, 2014). That they are not confused is attested to by multiple lines of evidence, such as the fact that respondents give the same answers multiple times when they are followed for years and asked the same questions repeatedly (Richman et al., 2016). Thus, until better evidence to the contrary is presented we are justified in thinking that voter fraud is actually very common in the United States….