2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing…
— Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 25, 2020
I’ll be honest – as an epidemiologist, I’m really deeply worried about this new coronavirus outbreak. 1) the virus has an upward infection trajectory curve much steeper than SARS. 2) it can be transmitted person to person before symptoms appear — I.e. it is silently contagious! pic.twitter.com/5Kjo6DkbQj
— Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 23, 2020
14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks
— Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 25, 2020
3) the UK author’s paper stated that the “reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.” His words, not me ‘fear mongering’. https://t.co/KrQfuAfS4l
— Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 25, 2020
Some folks think I’m trying to incite fear. I’m not trying—I’m a scientist. This #coronavirus #WuhanCoronovirus is serious. Over 50 million people are quarantined + case counts will go up much more. Predict @WHO will declare emergency. Let’s hope for the best, prepared for worst. https://t.co/H3UcR9eAjs
— Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 25, 2020
Small note: While there were reports of SARS having 0.49 after containment started, a WHO cited experts who said SARS had initial R0 of 2.9 then 2.0-3.5, which which fell to 0.4 after quarantine. But SARS is more symptomatic than this Wuhan virus. To be updated. pic.twitter.com/wNXf3rgcqg
— Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 25, 2020
13/ …and it gets even worse, the Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: “crucial to isolate patients… quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible”! https://t.co/FZr3Es1VwZ
— Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) January 25, 2020
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