We’ve recently reported that China is preparing for something very big in currency markets this October. We then learned that economic models from two very well known financial forecasters are predicting that governments around the world will run into serious problems starting around October 2nd of this year. Those forecasts come on the heels of a warning issued by economic analyst Michael Snyder who says that a financial collapse is imminent within the next six months.
A wide body of evidence suggests that something is in the works as economic numbers around the world are revealed to be nothing short of pure conjecture. Yet, despite the clearly disastrous direction in which the world is trending, politicians and media pundits maintain that whatever contagion existed has now been contained.
But a shocking report from Zero Hedge suggests otherwise. According to one of the world’s leading financial web sites, major banking institutions like JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have been left speechless after the release of new data coming out of China. The news isn’t necessarily that China just reported a massive increase in its gold holdings of some 600 tons, but rather, that they have actively dumped hundreds of billions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasuries over the last 15 months, with some $224 billion having been offloaded in just the last 90 days.
This has led many to speculate that the end for the world’s reserve currency is nigh. …
… But what is likely the take home message for non-Chinese readers from all of this, is that while there has been latent speculation over the years that China will dump US treasuries voluntarily because it wants to (as punishment or some other reason), suddenly China is forced to liquidate US Treasury paper even though it does not want to, merely to fund a capital outflow unlike anything it has seen in history. It still has a lot of 10 Year paper, aka FX reserves, left: about $1.3 trillion at last check, however this raises two critical questions: i) what happens to 10 Year rates when whoever has been absorbing China’s Treasury dump no longer bids the paper and ii) how much more paper can China sell before the entire world starts paying attention, besides just JPM and Goldman… and this website of course.
Finally, if China’s selling is only getting started, just what does this mean for future Fed strategy. Because one can easily forget a rate hike if in addition to rising short-term rates, China is about to dump a few hundred billion in paper on a vastly illiquid market.
Or let us paraphrase: how soon until QE 4?
What more clever way to trash the dollar than via the stand-up puppet of our future mortal enemy?