We compare the NOAA Significant Earthquake Historical database versus typical climatic indices and the length of the day (LOD). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) record is mainly adopted because most of the analyzed earthquakes occurred at the land boundaries of the Pacific Plate. The NOAA catalog contains information on destructive earthquakes. Using advanced spectral and magnitude squared coherence methodologies, we found that the magnitude M≥7 earthquake annual frequency and the PDO record share common frequencies at about 9-, 20-, and 50- to 60-year periods, which are typically found in climate records and among the solar and lunar harmonics. The two records are negatively correlated at the 20- and 50- to 60-year timescales and positively correlated at the 9-year and lower timescales. We use a simple harmonic model to forecast the M≥7 significant earthquake annual frequency for the next decades. The next 15 years should be characterized by a relatively high M≥7 earthquake activity (on average 10–12 occurrences per year) with possible maxima in 2020 and 2030 and a minimum in the 2040s. On the 60-year scale, the LOD is found to be highly correlated with the earthquake record (r=0.51 for 1900–1994, and r=0.95 for 1910–1970). However, the LOD variations appear to be too small to be the primary earthquake trigger. Our results suggest that large earthquakes are triggered by crust deformations induced by, and/or linked to climatic and oceanic oscillations induced by astronomical forcings, which also regulate the LOD. …
Spectral coherence between climate oscillations and the M ≥ 7 earthquake historical worldwide record; Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards 2015; 76:1571; DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1571-z
SUBJECT: Increased Threat of Major Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions in the United States.
… Our research, to be published in our June 10, 2015 Global Climate Status Report (GCSR), suggests the high probability for catastrophic earthquakes or volcanic eruptions in all the major seismic and volcano regions of the United States has increased significantly. We believe the USA and the world, has now entered the most dangerous period for catastrophic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in over two hundred years. In fact, a new trend of increased number and intensity of earthquakes and volcanoes globally, has already started and is generating serious concern in the geology field. This increased threat level warning we are issuing is intimately linked to an ongoing dramatic reduction in the energy output of the Sun. These events, tracked primarily by sunspot counts, are called ‘solar minimums,’ or more descriptively ‘solar hibernations.’ Analysis of past climate changes have also demonstrated that when these changes in the Sun happen, the Earth desce nds into a long, deep, cold climate period. These periods are universally understood within the solar physics community. Our previous research indicating the start of the next solar hibernation is now confirmed by NASA
Therefore, we believe the well know n high risk seismic zones and volcanically active regions in the US, especially California, South Carolina and in particular the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) may experience major earthquakes or volcanism at any time between now and the early 2030’s when the bottom of the next solar hibernation is reached. In the case of the NMSZ, we show in the GCSR that in each of the last four solar hibernations, a catastrophic earthquake has struck the region. Now that a new solar hibernation has begun, we should take maximum precautions given the high probability that another devastating earthquake will soon strike the NMSZ again. The window of opportunity for the next major earthquake in the NMSZ is between 2017 and 2038. …
Letter to FEMA director Craig Fugate from John L. Casey,
President, Space and Science Research Corporation,
CEO, International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center